Whilst this methodology works for a very particular case, certain of its aspects are nonetheless transposable, and still little used in the classical approaches of cartographic profiling. And therein lies the main interest of such a search. ‘The management of real distance constraints is, for example, an important aspect of the approach,’ explains Marie Trotta. The calculation of the distances between the crimes could be studied in real distances, via the road network, notably through the propagation technique. This technique is obviously usable in the classic applications of profiling, even if the distance travelled by the vehicle is not known in advance. ‘It is for example possible to place as a constraint a minimisation of the sum of the distances, looking for the most rapid itinerary, or the most secure.’ The simple fact of working on the network, as elementary as it might appear, is also a wonderful innovation, allowing greater precision to be achieved. ‘Many applications work on Euclidean distances, in other words straight lines between two points,’ explains Jean-Paul Kasprzyk. ‘Yet when a criminal goes from a point A to a point B, he doesn’t cover this distance as the crow flies.’

The development of scenarios can also be transposed to other cases. This mechanism of thinking has, in the present case, systematised the use of the chronology of events and the possible interdependence between two activities which can arise from it. For example the short lapse of time between the final event and the discovery of the abandoned car enables the researchers to deduce that the crooks had not passed by the withdrawal site between these two moments.

‘In the end we based ourselves exclusively on the data specific to the investigation,’ conclude the researchers. ‘One of the limitations of current profiling is that people do not sufficiently base themselves on data specific to the investigation, but rather on a model which does not specially reflect the criminal’s behaviour. One criminal’s behaviour cannot be compared to that of another. Basing oneself on models developed from other investigations can only add further approximations.’

The study thus offers new pathways to be explored in crime mapping, moving towards greater precision in estimating a criminal’s itinerary. It certainly does not constitute a miracle remedy for investigators. But this method can nevertheless obtain good results with a greater possibility of success than more approximate classical methods. However, as far as operational cartographic profiling in Belgium is concerned, requests for help on the part of the forces of order remain few in number. And the radical scale taken up in the budgets will certainly not reverse the trend. But there is nonetheless no lack of individual initiatives, both in terms of research and certain police chiefs with a penchant for new technologies. All that remains for the Belgian geomaticians is to hope that our country aligns itself with the interest displayed by certain European and North American states for this booming scientific investigation. In the meantime, this methodology can be transposed to other case studies, such as the conservation of the environment, where it can help to calculate the ecological cost of certain forms of transport, or the routes taken by motor-driven vehicles in certain regions of the globe.