The federal arena is no longer the royal path

Why do certain MPs still commit to politics at the federal level while others swear allegiance only to the region? Are the trajectories of elected representatives in a straight line or are they uneven? What motivates them? What weight do political parties hold? Based on an analysis of nearly 2,200 political careers, Jérémy Dodeigne established the profiles of regional and federal MPs in Wallonia, Catalonia and Scotland. In the south of Belgium, the average homo politicus is often like a shooting star.

The random example of Elio Di Rupo springs to mind! He started out as a local councilor when he began his career in 1982, he became a municipal councilor, Federal MP, member of the European parliament, Federal Minister, Deputy in Wallonia, Federal MP, Prime Minister and finally, Federal MP.

Another entirely random example is that of Didier Reynders! Local councilor in 1988, then deputy at the Chamber and Federal Minister up to the present day. What differences exist between the political trajectories of one who has walked practically all the halls of power and one who remains faithful to one tier of government? Where do the careers of our elected representatives lead? Is there a royal path to power, an ultimate stage in a political career that all elected representatives strive to reach?

In other countries, the typical career path is laid out: commune-federal-region then Europe to finish “in style”. In Belgium, this used to be the case. But now, other routes toward elected offices have appeared as a direct consequence of federalization. The low country is not the only one where there appears to be several routes towards political glory. The same applies to all countries where regionalization is in operation. When federal entities acquire more and more autonomy and powers, does a political career at a national level remain the ultimate achievement? Where has it become better to take up political office in a region?

The forest can no longer be seen for the trees

Jérémy Dodeigne, a research fellow at the FNRS at the catholic University of Louvain and the University of Liege, sought to answer the above questions by not merely focussing on the better known cases like the two examples mentioned above. Rather, he focussed his attention on all elected representatives, the unseen part of the iceberg below water. “Studies on this subject generally only take account of people who move from one tier of government to another. But the forest cannot be seen for the trees as these studies omit some 80% to 90% of all deputies! The innovative aspect of my work lies in the scope of its inclusiveness”.

The researcher did not confine his study to Wallonia, he also examined the political situation in Catalonia and Scotland where regional autonomy and powers have continued to increase since the 1960s. The total number of electoral careers examined was 2,200 (“I don’t count my working hours”!), and he conducted 83 interviews (these were carried out in the languages of the elected representatives concerned during trips abroad). His thesis, which he defended on the thirtieth of April last, presented two starting hypotheses.  Option 1: despite the empowerment of the regions, the national arena remains the most attractive choice. Option 2: the regions have become the new “places to be”.

The region of Wallonia no longer plays in the second division

The results showed that neither of these starting hypotheses applied. At least this was the case in Wallonia. In Catalonia and in Scotland the results were more clear-cut. “Over there the region is clearly in Division 1”, points out Jérémy Dodeigne. The region of Wallonia does not yet play in division 1 but does not quite play in division 2 either. “A third theory proved to be more accurate. With the increase in the levels of power, there is no longer only one political center but at least two”.

Such is the current situation. There are many explanations for this state of affairs. The identity factor remains important. What is the strength of nationalism in the territory concerned? We know that even if the south of the country contains some committed regionalists, the attachment to the federal state remains strong. This would not seem to be the case in Catalonia and Scotland, where political office at the national level is not coveted by native MPs who consider the national level to be too Spanish or English respectively. Furthermore, everything depends on the way the central powerbase integrates the peripheral territories. In other words, “political office at a national level will remain important as long as the MPs feel they have some influence there, including an influence over what happens in the regions”.

In Wallonia, as in Catalonia, elected representatives share one characteristic: their preoccupations are seen to be very local. The reason they take up office in the region is less to defend the interests of the region than to use it as a lever of influence for the benefit of their political entity. Priority is given to their own neck of the woods rather than to parliament. This can be explained first by the type of responsibilities in the hands of the region. Town and country planning, teaching, transport, accommodation, sport…All these services influence the daily lives of municipalities much more than the judicial system, pensions, foreign affairs or external commerce which are federal matters. Then practice of holding multiple political offices, which was possible for mayors up to 2014, adds another layer. How can a mayor be prevented from drawing unlimited benefits from taking the lion’s share for his town?

Local champions

Local champions understand the mechanics of elections very well. On electoral lists, these local champions, the beneficiaries of preferential votes-are advantageously well-positioned so as to be elected. Once they take up their posts, they try to further increase their local political base by being “the bearers of good news” in their municipalities. A vicious or virtuous circle depending on one’s point of view.

Nonetheless, since 2014, mayors (at least some of them in any case) have to decide between one political office or another. Even though, in actual fact many of them find ways to keep a hand in at all levels… So be it. “This decree against multiple-office holding could be an opportunity”, considers Jérémy Dodeigne. “We can imagine that the electoral reward will be regional from here on, even though the weight of tradition could be brought to bear on the situation. Also, many former federal deputies have ended up in the region since the last elections but they have a different experience”. Clearly, there is no question of putting the preoccupations of Mont-de-l’Enclus or Fexhe-le-Haut-Clocher on the table of the chamber. “Given the community context, the deputy is present more in order to defend his minister, he is especially required to act as a shield for his group or to spearhead an attack whereas in a regional context, he is on his own most of the time”.

The elected representative on the move

This decree of 2014 against holding multiple-office holding has led to more level-hopping movements than usual in Wallonia. As a general rule, an elected representative from the south of the country is the one on the move. In twenty years no less than 8 elections have taken place offering many opportunities for new political careers. This is a throwback to the composition of electoral lists which favour local champions (being a mayor or alderman facilitates mobility by offering a fallback post). These become active during elections and do not remain in a post for a long period.

Make no mistake: while some leading lights seem to have long careers, many of these political careers are very short. Half of all elected representatives do not exceed two successive terms in office. The average is even less than one legislative term. It is mostly the leading figures who last and who conduct level-hopping movements between tiers of government. This observation is also valid for Catalonia. In Scotland, on the other hand, the turnover is lower. The electoral system has given rise to a new situation. The candidate who is elected is he or she with the most votes. Here, candidates are put ahead of the electoral list. No substitutes exist. He who would wish to retire before the end of a term will only be replaced after the organization of a by-election. The risk of losing a seat to the benefit of another party is therefore real.

The party decides

In any event, elected representatives do not always have a choice. Certainly, personal reasons can also play a role. Jérémy Dodeigne cites for example newly elected Belgian MPs who had held seats in the federal parliament in 2007-2008 and who then preferred to return to the region in the elections of 2009 following the crisis that occurred at that time. Some female representatives (particularly in Scotland and Catalonia) prefer the regional assembly because they can be near their family which would not be the case if they had to return to the capital every day.

But homo politicus must often bend to the directives issued by his party which will play its cards based on several parameters.  Geographical balance, cultural diversity, parity between men and women, party factions which must all be satisfied (like the era when the “Renaissance” clan led a revolt in the MR, or when the PSC evolved into the CDH)… “In Belgium as elsewhere, politicians do not go where they want”, says the researcher. “In our country, in 2014, the percentage of federal candidates who would have liked to be elsewhere was higher. Having said that, even when people are not where they would wish to be, they recognize that the tier of government they find themselves at is important, that it counts for something”.

And yet, are those who would prefer to be elsewhere more efficient or involved? Do they fight as they would have done had they obtained the post that they were initially looking for? That remains to be determined… “Up to now, I have tried to explain careers, but in future research I would like to verify whether the career can explain certain things such as the defense of particular projects, motivation etc.”  The political scientist would similarly like to focus on the future of territories that are less exposed to ethno-national identity, as well as in political system where federalism has been established for a long time, like Canada, Australia and the United States.